The consequences of reservoir host eradication on disease epidemiology in animal communities.

Non-native species have often been linked with introduction of novel pathogens that spill over into native communities, and the amplification of the prevalence of native parasites. In the case of introduced generalist pathogens, their disease epidemiology in the extant communities remains poorly understood. Here, Sphaerothecum destruens, a generalist fungal-like fish pathogen with bi-modal transmission (direct and environmental) was used to characterise the biological drivers responsible for disease emergence in temperate fish communities. A range of biotic factors relating to both the pathogen and the surrounding host communities were used in a novel susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to test how these factors affected disease epidemiology. These included: (i) pathogen prevalence in an introduced reservoir host (Pseudorasbora parva); (ii) the impact of reservoir host eradication and its timing and (iii) the density of potential hosts in surrounding communities and their connectedness. These were modelled across 23 combinations and indicated that the spill-over of pathogen propagules via environmental transmission resulted in rapid establishment in adjacent fish communities (<1 year). Although disease dynamics were initially driven by environmental transmission in these communities, once sufficient numbers of native hosts were infected, the disease dynamics were driven by intra-species transmission. Subsequent eradication of the introduced host, irrespective of its timing (after one, two or three years), had limited impact on the long-term disease dynamics among local fish communities. These outputs reinforced the importance of rapid detection and eradication of non-native species, in particular when such species are identified as healthy reservoirs of a generalist pathogen

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe